It’s been a bit over a month since we’ve written an update, and we’ve seen some of you receive some good rains during this time but also a large portion of you very little. Depending on your location, the season splits in two from here – those that are “shutting the gate” as the season has cut off and those that are in more favourable areas continuing for another few weeks. We have some large variability in the crops within the network, with some further north in marginal areas missing that finishing rain, whilst others are still in with a chance. Domestic Chemical Due to the reason above we are seeing good supplies of all fungicides and insecticides locally. Epoxiconazole was getting tight but regions ‘cutting off’ from dry weather has meant that most are in good supply. There are no shortages to be concerned about. Desiccation and Summer Spraying – many of you are partially set for the next spraying season and it’s a good time to say well done to those that took advantage of the buying opportunities in our June offer. Again, it has proven to be the best time of the year to purchase key commodities like glyphosate, paraquat and 24d’s. In recent months we’ve seen increases in all of these products with glyphosate in particular lifting by nearly 50c/L since the end of June pricing. Expect Glyphosate 450 pricing to be above $4L in summer this year due to overseas price increases. We recommend you purchase your summer requirements sooner rather than later. Fertiliser Global phosphate prices have finally eased slightly after a long period of strength. The shift has been driven by two key factors: Chinese exports returning to the market and India slowing its purchasing pace. While Chinese exports are still expected to be well below normal levels for 2025—roughly half of what they would typically supply, the fact that product is leaving their ports has helped calm global markets. With India no longer buying at the breakneck speed seen earlier this year, pressure has eased, and prices have softened a touch. That said, the phosphate market remains very tight. Even with some exports resuming, China’s restrictions have created a supply gap that other producers cannot easily fill. This means the market will remain sensitive to any changes in Chinese export policy. If flows continue, values could drift slightly lower, however if China reverses course or demand unexpectedly increases, prices could rise again quickly. For growers, the challenge remains that phosphate prices are still high compared with grain values, raising questions about demand destruction. Many growers are considering reducing application rates or delaying purchases across all markets. If those cuts materialise it will help stabilise the market. But if demand suddenly rebounds, especially off the back of strong yields or government support programs (USA), supply chains could struggle to respond in time potentially leading to price spikes. The global urea market has shifted in favour of the buyer finally, with demand slowing to a crawl and Chinese exports ramped up. After being largely absent from the export scene since early 2025, China has returned strongly with shipments in July and August exceeding expectations. This injected much-needed supply into the market, easing pressure and keeping prices softer. India as always has played a key role, securing 2 million tonnes in its latest tender but holding off on its final purchase for the year, which keeps the market guessing. With most international buyers delaying purchases values remain under pressure in the short term. That said, the quiet conditions may not last. Fertiliser markets rarely stay calm for long, and the longer buyers delay buying the sharper the rebound in price could be when activity finally picks up. Sanctions talk around Russia and the possibility of China again restricting exports both remain wild cards. Either scenario would quickly tighten global supply and send prices higher. For now, buyers are in a stronger position (albeit no real requirement apart from summer croppers), the message is to stay alert—urea values are easing but global supply and political uncertainty could shift the balance quickly. Summary In summary we recommend you finalise your desiccation and summer chemical orders but think you should sit and wait for now on fertiliser but remain alert. As always keep in touch with the Crop Smart team and we will provide the best guidance possible on the time to buy. Thanks for those of you that continue to support us during the 2025 season we really do appreciate your support. We wish you all the best for the remainder of the season and pray that a finishing rain appears on the radar soon.