Breaking Rains, Profile Moisture, and Geopolitical Headwinds The landscape has shifted dramatically over the last few weeks, with rain finally arriving for many regions. Unforeseen Rainfall for Northwest Victoria has created optimism and excitement regarding increased yield predictions for the coming season. While our business is cropping-focused, it’s fantastic to see our Central Inland pastoralists celebrating record February rainfalls and a carpet of green feed for their livestock. For the croppers, there is a genuine sense of excitement regarding the moisture now sitting in the profile. The trade-off, of course, is a large summer spraying program. We’ve seen time and again that the ROI on late-summer weed control pays dividends at harvest, even if we are a little biased in saying so! However, the primary pressure point this month isn't the weather it's the conflict in the Iranian Gulf. The Ripple Effect: Oil, Supply Chains, and Your Inputs Fuel, Urea, and Ag Chem are all inputs directly or indirectly tied to the price of oil. The reality is simple: expect price firming until the current conflict stabilises. With all eyes on the Strait of Hormuz, any impact on global oil flow ripples through to the shed floor here in Australia. To help you navigate this, it is worth revisiting the lessons we learned during the COVID-19 disruptions: Order Early & Be Organised: Those who moved early secured the lowest prices and avoided the stress of stock-outs. In 2020-21, early orders saved some growers six-figure sums on their chemical spend. More importantly, it guaranteed they actually had product when the boom needed to fold out. Physical Possession is Key: Getting product on farm earlier than normal is a strategic move. This includes pulling your fertiliser early and arranging on-farm chemical deliveries. Expect the Unexpected: Supply chain friction always creates unpredictable shortages. While many pre-emergent products are already in the country, this massive rain event will put immediate pressure on Glyphosate, 24-D, spikes, and adjuvants. Some post-emergence and fungicide products are still in transit and may experience delays. Fertiliser Update: Urea Volatility The focus is squarely on Urea, and for good reason. A 40% increase in a single week is a bitter pill to swallow. Price Movement: We’ve seen prices jump from the high $800s to around $1,200/tonne. The Conflict Pivot: If the conflict sustains oil prices, Urea will likely stay elevated. Conversely, a "peace pivot" could see a short-term lift evaporate as quickly as it arrived. Supply vs. Price: Currently, Australian supply isn't under threat, but we are having to source from more expensive manufacturers outside our traditional channels. Strategy: Our advice is to manage your risk. Don't be caught 100% exposed; taking a position now at least secures your start. Key Actions for March Investment in Planning: Spend half a day in the office getting your 6-month requirements on paper. It will save you significant time and stress later. Lock in Summer Requirements: With the rain comes the weeds. Secure your Glyphosate and 24-D now before local short-term pressure tightens supply. Logistics: Book your fertiliser pickups and arrange on-farm delivery for your chemical. Things are changing daily, and we are here to guide you through it. Crop Smart’s direct connection to China and our integrated supply chain mean we can provide you with the most up-to-date intel as it happens. It’s going to be a bumpy ride, but we’re in the header with you.