A Flying Start, Global Price Pressures, and the Nitrogen Math Hello farmers, and welcome to our May update. The headline news this month is incredibly welcome: we have seen a fantastic break to the season across almost our entire network. A large rainfall event in March has been backed up by further consistent rain over the last fortnight. This has set up a highly positive start to the cropping year. While the long-term Bureau forecasts remain on the drier side, the reality on the ground is that the season has kicked off in excellent shape, giving crops the best possible launchpad. 🧪 Chemical Update: Shifting to Post-Ems Amid Rising Global Costs With the seeding program well underway, pre-emergent products have largely come and gone through the sheds. The retail focus is now shifting rapidly toward post-emergent chemistry and early-season fungicides. As we flagged in our March and April updates, the absolute best time to buy your requirements was back then. Since the conflict in the Middle East escalated, prices across all product lines have moved upward. Even if manufacturing costs hold steady, the sheer increase in shipping, air freight, and local transport—fuelled by recent diesel price hikes—is pushing retail prices up. Current Active Status & Strategy: The Essentials (LVE MCPA, Clethodim, Adjuvants): We have seen slight, steady price increases across all of these lines over the last month. The "Big Two" (Glyphosate & Paraquat): This is where the biggest market movements are happening. Driven by global supply panics and freight spikes, Glyphosate technical concentrate in China has lifted by over $1/L since the conflict started. Paraquat has risen by just under $1/L. Knockdown Strategy: At mid-to-high $4/L, Paraquat still represents solid historic value, and we believe it remains a good buy. Glyphosate 450, however, is threatening to push into the $5/L range for the first time since the post-COVID comedown. Unless you can track down old-basis stock locally, our strategic advice is to buy as you go on Glyphosate for the time being. Fungicides: All major lines are currently in good supply. However, the pricing direction is firmly upwards. If you are planning an early preventative application, the best time to lock in your volume and price is today. 💰 Fertiliser Update: Managing the Nitrogen ROI Urea sitting at $1,400/tonne puts it at the upper end of historical values, and we know many of you are currently in the office calculating the exact mathematical returns on your nitrogen spend at these numbers. We highly encourage you to run those numbers carefully against your updated yield potential. The Supply Reality: At $1,400/T, it is highly unlikely that enough physical product will be imported into the country to satisfy a massive, high-yielding winter crop across the board purely because most people have stopped ordering – hence no suppliers will “punt” volume at this price point. If these good seasonal conditions continue to roll on, demand will quickly outstrip port supply. Our advice is if the positive season continues to get your requirements in early before stock gets tight. Looking Ahead to 2027 (Phosphates): We are already fielding questions from growers about forward-buying planting fertilisers (MAP/DAP) for next year because prices are firming and global supply looks tight. While we understand the temptation to de-risk, we don't have a crystal ball that reaches out 12 months. We encourage you to do your own deep research on early phosphate bookings before committing capital that far ahead. 🎯 Key Actions for May Transition to Post-Ems: Review your weed spectrums following these twin rain events and secure your LVE MCPA, Clethodim and Adjuvants/Oils requirements before the next round of freight adjustments hits. Glyphosate vs. Paraquat Allocation: Take a position on your winter Paraquat needs while it represents value, but adopt a tactical, hand-to-mouth buying approach on Glyphosate to see if China pricing settles. Secure Winter Nitrogen: Do the math on your urea requirements based on current profile moisture and book your volumes early to ensure you aren't left stranded during the peak winter top-dressing rush. The season has given us a great opening window, and despite the global volatility, there is plenty to be optimistic about. Your local Crop Smart sales representative is fully updated on all post-em and fungicides stock and pricing —reach out to them this week to keep your program moving seamlessly. Thanks for supporting Crop Smart this season.