What’s Happening In The Market – July 2021
July Market Update
For the first time in a long time, it’s wet nearly everywhere! South Australia as a whole had its wettest June since 2016, and most of July has been the same. The Riverland and Murrayland districts have been very dry until the last few weeks, so it’s great to see the rain path finally find them. In Victoria as a whole, it was their wettest June since 2014, and July has been just as good. In the Victorian Mallee, crops are very late due to the slow start, so it’s great to see rain falling there giving these crops a chance. In our high rainfall regions like Yarrawonga they are struggling to get onto their paddocks as it’s too wet. The good news for everyone is the forecast is only pointing to above-average rainfall from here so let’s hope we have a gentle but wet finish to the season.
Fungicide Supply – just as the rain has come, so have the fungicides gone out. As a result, the market is now very tight on all fungicide products, so we want to be very clear on this one – order what you want now for fungicides this season. Most states in Australia are wetter than average so as a basic rule, when the country is wetter than normal it’s likely products will go short or increase in price. We saw this in 2016 when product got short, and the price of Carbendazim and Chlorothalonil doubled. Whilst that isn’t the case yet at reseller level, the wholesale market is nearly sold out, and if the season continues, it has all the same ingredients. So please be organised.
Paraquat – We’ve been saying that paraquat has been good buying for four months, and the price has just bounced overseas by 10% as we predicted, so the best time to buy paraquat is right now before the new priced stock arrives. The price will continue to increase in response to glyphosate price increases.
Fertiliser – Since our last update Urea prices have continued to rise. This combined with timely rainfall, means supply is extremely tight. Producers are only able to offer new tonnes from mid-September if at all. Fortunately, we were able to cover customer requirements early, albeit if the season remains favourable into Spring there won’t be enough product. Our attention turns to phosphates for 2022, everyone wants to know, what is going to happen to prices into next season? The simple answer is nobody can predict what will transpire in the coming months; phosphates have stabilised recently after significant increases throughout 2021. Getting a consensus is almost impossible due to concerns over China’s ability or willingness to export. There are still questions unanswered that will affect prices:
- will growers globally cut rates given high fertiliser prices?
- will high commodity prices maintain demand?
- and will shipping rates continue to climb?
We will continue to monitor and as more info comes to hand provide updates – the only certainty at the moment is phosphate prices are high and are unlikely to come down anytime soon.
If we can help you with any of your requirements this season, please get in touch. Good luck for the remainder of the month, let’s hope the sun comes out and allows the crops to gain the full benefit of the moisture we have had
