What’s Happening in The Market – November 2020
It’s great to see everyone into harvest and getting rewarded for their effort with what has been a good, to outstanding, year for most of you. For those early regions like the Upper EP and Upper Mid North in SA, the yields are average to below average but have come a long way since the dry spell in July. Those in Victoria and Southern South Australia are enjoying some above-average yields primarily off the back of good summer rain or early rain at sowing. Meanwhile, it’s great to see customers in NSW harvesting some of their best crops ever after enduring three years of drought or extremely tough seasons. Certainly, every year is different in farming, and there are always various challenges with different pests, frost, and rainfall.
The frustrating thing about harvest this year has been the intermittent rain, which means there is plenty of green in paddocks across Southern Australia. This is going to put supply under pressure leading into Christmas and during January, as no one predicted the vast amount of spraying that will need to be done so early this summer. Similar to last month, we are recommending everyone to ORDER EARLY for summer spraying. We expect to see tight supply until the middle of January across the market, so please be more organized than usual. One of the driving forces behind this is shipping delays from China, India, and other overseas countries where raw ingredients are sourced. Since COVID, many shipping businesses have gone broke and there also isn’t the usual demand for exports around the world. As a result, we can’t get product as quickly into Australia as we used to from other countries. For example, in China, there is a shipping container shortage as not enough boats have been bringing them back into their ports. This is adding a 2-4 week delay on a lot of products, and when you combine this with early rains (and therefore earlier demand on product) product is likely to run tight until the market can catch up.
Sowing Chemical – there’s no panic on this yet, but as discussed last month, we will be aiming to get you organized earlier than last year with the current world climate. Focus on harvest, and we will be in touch if anything changes.
Fertiliser – We still think starter AP’s may come off their current pricing, however this could change overnight so be prepared to take a position if the market dynamic changes suddenly since it can be quite unstable! If you’re currently looking to backload grain trucks from port, then Urea would be your best option with a delivery period into the early 2021 New Year. There’s no panic to move here just yet, however this can change suddenly! Be prepared to secure next season’s supply anytime during the harvest period which we will give you notice when the time is right to enter the market.
We wish everyone a safe and profitable harvest, and let’s hope the rain can stay away until the grain is in the silos! All the best.