Did we get it right? Our market forecast 2017 – 18
As we approach the end of 2017, we thought we’d review our market updates and see how accurate our market intelligence has been, which of our market forecasts came true and where the market is going.
If anything, we feel that we may have under estimated the impact of the environmental regulations in China, with several prices increasing faster than anticipated. However, it is evident that many customers who acted on our market update advice, have made significant savings.
With the market uncertainty likely to last for another 12 to 18 months, it would be to your advantage to stay in touch with your Crop Smart Sales Manager for regular market updates.
These are the price product forecasts I made over the last few months, and the results to date:
By the end of June, the glyphosate price had reached its lowest level in 6 months, with prices falling below $3/L. We flagged this exceptional value with our customers, and many took the opportunity to purchase. Throughout September and October, we continued to highlight the price increase and advised customers to remain two sprays ahead until further notice. The price of glyphosate currently sits at $4/L.
In August, we acknowledged the price increase that has occurred over the past 12 months. The Paraquat price has now plateaued, as supply and demand stabilise. Throughout September and October, the market remained relatively stable and with large volumes of stock available we projected the price would remain constant through desiccation. With November stock prices up by 10%, the price forecast was upwards. The price of paraquat is currently sitting at around $4.6/L.
Imidacloprid & Flutriafol:
In August, the price for imidacloprid and flutriafol were predicted to increase as environmental regulations in China have forced smaller factories to close, driving up the price of their raw ingredients. Today, both products are in short supply, resulting in price increases of 100% and 50% respectively.
Simazine & Atrazine:
The environmental inspections and factory closures of key triazine producers has caused an increase in the price of atrazine and simazine. Due to the uncertainty of when full production will resume in these factories we believed that there would be continued price rises from September. Since August, the price of atrazine and simazine has risen by 20%.
Throughout August, the price of triclopyr remained stable and with most stock supplied by India, the Chinese environmental inspections had minimal impact. In September and October, the market was predicted to remain steady, given the adequate stock availability for the remainder of 2017. The price of triclopyr will rise by over 10% heading into 2018.
Our projection was that the trifluralin price would remain steady, however given a supply shortage resulting from the Chinese environmental inspections, the price has risen. What impact this has at sowing will depend on how much stock was imported prior to the price rises.
24D Amine 625:
With the majority of stock being supplied from India, in August our forecast was that the price of 24D Amine 625 would remain constant. In October, the price was forecast to increase by around 3% through summer. Since August, there has been a slight rise in price.
24D Ester 680:
In October, the price of 2-4,D Ester 680 was forecast to increase by around 5% through summer. We have seen a slight price rise.
In closing, it is due to our relationships with key International suppliers that Crop Smart is able to keep ahead of market fluctuations and ensure our production plans are made well in advance. You can be confident that your Crop Smart Sales Manager will keep you up to date with key market information to ensure guaranteed supply and regular price updates. Follow our lead and plan well ahead as you buy early for summer and 2018.